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Saturday, October 09, 2004

Kerry Wins Huge by Decision

Keith Olbermann, MSNBC news host and former sportcaster, scores the debate like a boxing match (I guess the fencing metaphor would be too arcane for such a mainstream guy), keeping a running tally of landed blows and fouls committed. He compares each each question to a round in the verbal slugfest. Olbemann appears to have assumed the mantle of Jon Stewart in the "non-fake news" arena and has a worthwhile take on the debate.

Here are the highlights from his exhaustive blow-by-blow account on HardlyBlogger:
Boxing and presidential politics have more in common than you'd think:

It's been observed that boxing is a spectacle in which men dressed in tuxedos sit around watching two guys in their underwear fight each other.

Well, surely, a presidential debate is a spectacle in which millions dressed in their underwear sit around at home watching two guys dressed in $4,000 suits fight each other...

Round 1: (Kerry, 1 to -1) And here they are! Bush surprises in a light blue tie; Kerry sticks with the traditional red. The fighters go to their stools and Kerry receives Cheryl Otis's question about her friends' perception he is wishy-washy. Standard Kerry thank you and calls President "sir." And Kerry swings hard: assaulting his character is Bush's cover-up for failure to locate Weapons of Mass Destruction.

Round 2: (Kerry, 2 to 1) Bush receives Robin Dahl's question about the president's belief that war was justified even without WMD. Three invocations of "after 9/11" in first 20 seconds. Bush receives a warning from the referee... Says Saddam was "gaming the Oil-for-Feud program" — clever analogy to Missouri's Riverboat Gambling industry. One point to Bush... And Kerry roars back invoking the names of both the questioner and the previous questioner. Visceral point to Kerry...

Round 3: (Kerry, 1 to -1) Kerry Receives from Anthony Baldi. Doesn't look follically challenged. He asks if Kerry would use same plan as Bush in Iraq...Bush turns back on Kerry and accuses him of appropriating "The Bush Plan." President seems to be verging on anger as he describes the Kerry plan for a summit... Kerry asks for follow-up. Kerry turns "wrong place" line around into "right place" about Afghanistan and Osama Bin Laden. Bush response: oops "We didn't find out he didn't have weapons till we got there." Bush seems winded...

Round 4: (Kerry, 2 to 0) Bush receives from Nikki Washington on her family's trip abroad and anti-American feeling they experienced and if he has a remedy. Bush slips into almost saying he made decisions that contributed to it; saves himself by firing a Ronald Reagan shot... Kerry now quotes Bush from 2000 against him about only going to war if there was an exit strategy... Bush's lower lip quivers. Now his eyes dart and he chews as Kerry accuses him of "breaking his word." Bush off his feet quickly to respond and damns his general with faint praise, opening up the body to Kerry. And he hits hard: President should win the peace...

Round 5:(Bush, 2 to 0) Kerry receives from Randi Jacobs. Good that these questioners have fairly simple names. She asks about Iran's nuclear threat.

Round 6: (Kerry, 1 to -2) Bush receives from Robert Farley about prospects of a draft. Says he's heard rumors on the "internets." Bloggers can be heard howling over the multiple... Stumbles in claiming he's replacing troops with weapons and equipment and unmanned vehicles. They'll save "manpower and equipment." Veers back to say there'll be no draft. Kerry is on the ropes here, now lists the military leaders who support him... Now Kerry backs out of clinch and says there's already a backdoor draft and says his military policy will be like Reagan's and Eisenhower's... But Bush is off his stool before Gibson authorizes him to and he's yelling at the ref -- always a bad idea. Minus one point. Bush. He also leaves himself open by invoking Poland as an ally when Poland is pulling out -- Kerry scores point by noting it.

Round 7: (Bush, 1 to 0) Kerry receives from Anne Bronsing. Why have there been no terrorist attacks domestically since 9/11 and how will he keep it that way. Kerry stumbles on "not a question of when." ...Bush says he's worried -- four times -- doesn't sound reassuring...

Round 8: (Kerry, 2 to 1) Bush receives from Ron Horshman: why did he block importation of cheaper drugs from Canada. Bush asserts he hasn't yet, he's making sure the drugs are safe, and not secondary imports from the Third World. Questioner seems to be smiling happily... Invokes the name of a drug discount card user from "Missoura." Favored pronunciation of natives... Kerry isn't looking at him; Bush swing hits air. Kerry off the stool, "We did something you don't know how to do: balance the budget." Stinging blow...

Round 9: (Kerry, 1 to -1)Kerry receives from Norma Jean Laurent. Why choose an anti-medical lawyer as VP if you're pro medical rights. Superb question and Kerry has a fight on his hands. Says Edwards authored the Patients' Bill of Rights... Bush off his stool and falls to the mat: confuses John Kerry and Ted Kennedy...

Round 10: (Kerry, 2 to -1) Bush receives from Matthew O'Brien... Why with a Republican majority, has he not vetoed spending plans not approved by the American people. Bush broadens to the '90s bubble and the war. He seems to be admonishing the questioner, and now goes off to homeland security and more expenditures for war. He now tries to use the tax cut punch; misses wildly...Kerry connects with failure of Bush job growth promise. Point to Kerry, invoking Enron.

Round 11: (Kerry, 2 to 0) Kerry receives from James Somebody, asks Kerry to swear to the camera that he won't raise tax burdens to families making less than $200,000. Kerry mugs perfectly into camera and does. Dramatic punch. Point to Kerry. Talks about his own need to cut back his own pet projects to resolve Bush defecit... Bush off his stool to say "it's just not credible" three times, and insists Kerry will raise taxes despite pledge..."Is my time up?" Minus one point. Maybe he should've borrowed his father's watch... Bush response says "look at the record" even though Kerry just hit him on record.

Round 12: (Bush, 1 to 0) Bush receives from James Hubb on his record as environmentalist. Bush with a laundry list of accomplishments but it connects. Point to Bush. Gets lost in the forest. Claims he proposed the hydrogen automobile (thought Gore did that as part of founding the Internet). Kerry scratching his forehead... Kerry savages on clean skies bills, calls it Orwellian. Brilliant cadence in answer. Bush reasserts air quality's better, opening the body for a quick Kerry flurry to the ribs. Kerry says we walked away from work of 160 nations over 10 years...

Round 13: (Bush, 2 to 0) Kerry receives from Jean Barrow on how America can remain competitive in manufacturing. Are we sure these are uncommitted voters? Torn from today's headlines of 18,000 jobs lost in manufacturing last month. Kerry misses Bush weak spot... Kerry responds cleanly with confession that he can't stop outsourcing. Bush up strongly with response that he doesn't know that he owns $84 worth of a timber company. Point to Bush, pending review.

Round 14: (Kerry, 1 to -2) Bush receives from Ron Fowler about dangers to citizens' rights inherent in Patriot Act and Patriot Act Two. Bush bobs and weaves to insist they won't. "I hope you don't think that." Questioner seems dyspeptic and unhappy... Kerry up quickly to quote James Sensenbrenner and other Republicans claiming Patriot Act needs careful revision. Point to Kerry. Bush grinding his teeth. Could be the Debate Two cutaway shot equivalent of the scowl. Kerry endorses Patriot Act.

Round 15:(Kerry, 2 to 1) Kerry receives from Elizabeth Long about adult stem cell cures as opposed to embryonic stem cell cures. Kerry moves slowly, then pounds by invoking Nancy Reagan and Michael J. Fox..."Don't take away my hope," he quotes Fox. Invokes Christopher Reeve... Bush up but his answer is overshadowed by woman in last row behind him who covers her face in her hand. "To destroy life to save life is one of the real ethical dilemmas that we face." Mentions 22 lines without explaining if he's talking about lines of research, or Boston subway lines. Kerry up quickly accusing Bush of waffling, of allowing some destruction of life but not more...

Round 16: (Kerry, 1 to 0) Bush receives from Jonathan Michaelson about who he'd appoint to Supreme Court. Bush scores with backwoods "I'm not tellin'" answer... But he's using the Ali rope-a-dope. Invokes the Dred Scott case. That was in 1857, not a recent precedent [ed: thank God he put the ownership society question to rest].

Round 17: (draw 1 to 1) Kerry receives from Sarah Degenhart about a voter who believes abortion is murder asking that their tax dollars would not go towards funding it...

Round 18:(Kerry, 2 to 0) Bush receives final question from Linda Grable. Please give three instances in which you made a wrong decision and how you corrected them. Bush responds with boards "to appointments to board you never heard of." Says he'll take responsibility for war mistakes but won't name them. Insists question is really about the decision to go to Iraq. Minus one point to Bush for badgering the questioner. Turns it into Saddam Hussein's torture, skids on wet spot and goes directly to tax cut. Now defending bad appointments...

Round 19: (Draw 0 to 0) Final statements.

Final scoring [ed: see update]:
Rounds: Kerry 12, Bush 4, Drawn 3.
Points: Bush—2 during rounds, 10 added supplementally, Total 12; Kerry—19 during rounds, five subtracted supplementally, one added for overall impact.
Score: Kerry 15, Bush 12— a statistical draw.

Intangibles: For a "town hall" meeting, the goal of each to connect with the people seemed diffused and delayed until after the debate...

Overall, Bush clearly rebounded from his Miami performance, and wiped out that part of the criticism that labeled him indecisive and stumbling...

But, like Dick Cheney on Tuesday, President Bush left himself open for a second-day story, a minor wound if he really does have an $84 stake in a timber company. More points could be awarded or subtracted from either fighter depending on the fact-check. And you don't want to mention either Dred Scott and slavery, or the prospects of a depression.

*Timber Update:
In the middle of its evaluation of Bush-Kerry II, the Hooey from St. Looey, the Scorer's Table warned Mr. Bush during the course of the thirteenth round that if it proved Mr. Kerry was correct in his assertion that the President derived $84 of income from part-ownership of a timber company, the President would be severely sanctioned.

The Scorer's Table, having taken two hours to let the Blogosphere complete its due diligence ...

The point awarded to Mr. Bush in the thirteenth round is hereby withdrawn and awarded to Mr. Kerry, for the latter's enterprising hoisting of his opponent on said opponent's own petard.

Mr. Bush is also penalized three points for a truth foul.
Mr. Bush is further penalized two points for getting snarky while in the act of being factually incorrect.

The thirteenth round, originally scored 2-0 for Mr. Bush, now reverts to a 1-1 draw, and the rounds awarded total now changes from 12 Kerry, 4 Bush, 3 Drawn, to 12 Kerry, 3 Bush, 4 Drawn.

>The final points scoring is now adjusted from Kerry 15, Bush 12, to Kerry 16, Bush 6. The Scorer thus designates the outcome as a Kerry victory outside the margin for statistical error.

The scorer's table reproaches President Bush for not knowing when he has wood.